30% Knife

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$39.29

78.57 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $35.36 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.24%

524 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

86.38%±20.28318 openings

30 days

86.24%±15.80524 openings

since tracking started

86.24%±15.80524 openings

3.5%85.0%166.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	85.21%±80.9	—	odds
7d	318	86.38%±20.3	−0.4σ	odds
30d	524	86.24%±15.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	524	86.24%±15.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 524 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 100,000	$6,234 12,468 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$2,317 4,635 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$2,251 4,502 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20,000	$2,156 4,312 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$1,876 3,752 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$1,865 3,729 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$873 1,745 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$838 1,677 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 5,000	$816 1,631 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$793 1,585 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$760 1,520 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 14	$131 261 coins	25.9%	40	36.7	1.09×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14	$130 259 coins	25.7%	39	36.7	1.06×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$126 253 coins	25.0%	31	36.7	0.85×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11	$75.51 151 coins	18.9%	47	46.4	1.01×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	70.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	367	366.8	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$39.2978.57 coins$75.51151 coins1.92x17h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$39.2978.57 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x17h

★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldMoon1025$39.2978.57 coins$131261 coins3.33x17h

★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold$39.2978.57 coins$131261 coins3.33x17h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$39.2978.57 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x17h

★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$39.2978.57 coins$75.51151 coins1.92x17h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerRavtok$39.2978.57 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x17h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$39.2978.57 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.29	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 16.0%Covert 0.0%gold 7.0%covert knife 7.0%consumer 70.0%best hit —