400x Or Bust
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.51
1.01 coins
Advertised RTP
88.12%
EV $0.45 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.13%
7,737 openings, odds method
Variance
344.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 685
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,737 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,370 | $201 401 coins | 32.9% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.06× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,370 | $200 401 coins | 32.9% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.06× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 1,351 | $199 398 coins | 33.1% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 99.8% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 7,719 | 7720.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.511.01 coins$201401 coins397.1x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.511.01 coins$201401 coins397.1x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.511.01 coins$201401 coins397.1x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.511.01 coins$201401 coins397.1x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.511.01 coins$201401 coins397.1x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$0.511.01 coins$201401 coins397.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.12%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.51 | 88.12% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%Covert 0.1%covert 0.1%#4b69ff 99.8%best hit $201 (397.1x)