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420 1%

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$24.69
49.37 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
85.92%
592 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
200 openings · below min
30 days
592 openings · below min
since tracking started
592 openings · below min
-0.5%148.0%296.5%

Small sample. 592 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d200144.74%±151.2—sample
30d59285.92%±66.8—sample
All59285.92%±66.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$24.6949.37 coins$2,5455,091 coins103.1x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald$24.6949.37 coins$2,3384,676 coins94.71x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emeraldsyltfanxx$24.6949.37 coins$2,3384,676 coins94.71x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$24.6949.37 coins$1,8053,610 coins73.12x
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$24.6949.37 coins$1,4292,858 coins57.89x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$24.6949.37 coins$1,2652,529 coins51.23x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$24.6949.37 coins$8321,664 coins33.71x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerwannagambles$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.6949.37 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,545 (103.1x)