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5% Frozen Awp

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$19.80
39.59 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.82 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.82%
2,721 openings, odds method
Variance
50.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 99
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
175 openings · below min
7 days
86.34%±31.102,002 openings
30 days
87.82%±26.672,721 openings
since tracking started
87.82%±26.672,721 openings
-0.5%61.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h17517.11%±105.2—odds
7d2,00286.34%±31.1−0.2σodds
30d2,72187.82%±26.7−0.2σodds
All2,72187.82%±26.7−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,721 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$9,355 18,710 coins5.3%00.3—
AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1,788 3,577 coins10.0%42.71.47×
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 500$1,266 2,533 coins14.2%65.41.10×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 286$658 1,316 coins12.9%109.51.05×
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 286$657 1,315 coins12.9%79.50.74×
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 167$290 580 coins9.8%1516.30.92×
SSG 08 | Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 167$277 555 coins9.3%1516.30.92×
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 167$269 538 coins9.1%1516.30.92×
AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 154$202 404 coins7.4%2217.71.24×
AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New)weapon1 in 130$156 312 coins6.7%2021.00.95×
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 130$53.59 107 coins2.3%2321.01.10×
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff95.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%2,5842584.91.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,7883,577 coins90.35x
AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,7883,577 coins90.35x
AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,7883,577 coins90.35x
AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertcherrylea$19.8039.59 coins$1,7883,577 coins90.35x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,2662,533 coins63.98x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covertaxel02legmail$19.8039.59 coins$1,2662,533 coins63.98x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,2662,533 coins63.98x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,2662,533 coins63.98x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,2662,533 coins63.98x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$19.8039.59 coins$1,2662,533 coins63.98x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffBrokeCalls$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$19.8039.59 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$19.8090.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.3%classified 1.7%Classified 0.6%mil spec 0.7%other 0.8%#4b69ff 95.0%best hit $1,788 (90.35x)