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5% Funbox

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.02
32.04 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.42 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.19%
3,371 openings, odds method
Variance
20.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
98.24%±47.64351 openings
7 days
89.37%±16.432,951 openings
30 days
88.19%±15.373,371 openings
since tracking started
88.19%±15.373,371 openings
50.0%98.3%146.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h35198.24%±47.6+0.3σodds
7d2,95189.37%±16.4−0.1σodds
30d3,37188.19%±15.4−0.2σodds
All3,37188.19%±15.4−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,371 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire1 in 400$632 1,265 coins11.0%68.40.71×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 400$618 1,237 coins10.7%68.40.71×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 400$618 1,236 coins10.7%118.41.31×
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 400$610 1,220 coins10.6%68.40.71×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$215 431 coins14.9%4233.71.25×
★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 100$204 408 coins14.2%3133.70.92×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$202 403 coins14.0%3233.70.95×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 100$201 401 coins13.9%3933.71.16×
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff95.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%3,1983202.41.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$16.0232.04 coins$6321,265 coins39.47x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$16.0232.04 coins$6321,265 coins39.47x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$16.0232.04 coins$6321,265 coins39.47x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$16.0232.04 coins$6321,265 coins39.47x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$16.0232.04 coins$6321,265 coins39.47x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$16.0232.04 coins$6321,265 coins39.47x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$16.0232.04 coins$6181,237 coins38.60x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$16.0232.04 coins$6181,237 coins38.60x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$16.0232.04 coins$6181,237 coins38.60x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$16.0232.04 coins$6181,237 coins38.60x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMoon1025$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$16.0232.04 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$16.0290.00%9
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.5%covert knife 2.3%covert 2.3%#4b69ff 95.0%best hit $632 (39.47x)