5% Glory
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.95
21.89 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $9.85 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.95%
1,944 openings, odds method
Variance
15.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,944 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 100 | $228 455 coins | 23.1% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $209 417 coins | 21.2% | 20 | 19.4 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 100 | $201 402 coins | 20.4% | 24 | 19.4 | 1.23× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $193 386 coins | 19.6% | 12 | 19.4 | 0.62× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $153 305 coins | 15.5% | 20 | 19.4 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 95.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 1,850 | 1846.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.95 | 89.98% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%pink 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%industrial 95.0%best hit —