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5% Lean

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$5.00
10 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
81.75%
4,567 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
138 openings · below min
7 days
80.29%±17.643,348 openings
30 days
81.75%±15.884,567 openings
since tracking started
81.75%±15.884,567 openings
5.0%52.8%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h13852.71%±46.9—sample
7d3,34880.29%±17.6—sample
30d4,56781.75%±15.9—sample
All4,56781.75%±15.9—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Bilboref$5.0010 coins$439878 coins87.77x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$5.0010 coins$363726 coins72.62x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeDemonDeeeeek$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.0010 coins$56.28113 coins11.26x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $439 (87.77x)