5% Loot

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.40

8.8 coins

Advertised RTP

89.93%

EV $3.96 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.19%

14.5K openings, odds method

Variance

18.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 51

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.14%±16.392,631 openings

7 days

92.75%±7.8111.6K openings

30 days

94.19%±6.9814.5K openings

since tracking started

94.19%±6.9814.5K openings

69.0%86.0%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,631	86.14%±16.4	−0.5σ	odds
7d	11.6K	92.75%±7.81	+0.7σ	odds
30d	14.5K	94.19%±6.98	+1.2σ	odds
All	14.5K	94.19%±6.98	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$428 855 coins	1.1%	1	1.5	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$301 602 coins	3.8%	5	7.3	0.69×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$193 386 coins	4.9%	13	14.5	0.90×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$120 240 coins	6.1%	39	29.0	1.34×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$104 208 coins	7.9%	43	43.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$95.07 190 coins	12.0%	81	72.5	1.12×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 125	$76.84 154 coins	15.5%	131	116.1	1.13×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$72.29 145 coins	16.4%	148	130.6	1.13×
Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$61.04 122 coins	15.4%	142	145.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 83	$52.51 105 coins	15.9%	169	174.1	0.97×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	94.9%	$0.04 0.08 coins	1.0%	13,735	13772.9	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold$4.408.8 coins$428855 coins97.17x3d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.408.8 coins$301602 coins68.38x1d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.408.8 coins$301602 coins68.38x4d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.408.8 coins$301602 coins68.38x6d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.408.8 coins$301602 coins68.38x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$4.408.8 coins$0.040.08 coins0.01x5s

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$4.408.8 coins$72.29145 coins16.43x5s

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$4.408.8 coins$0.040.08 coins0.01x5s

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonLer1$4.408.8 coins$0.040.08 coins0.01x5s

Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$4.408.8 coins$61.04122 coins13.87x1m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.408.8 coins$52.51105 coins11.93x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.40	89.93%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 1.0%covert 0.5%classified 0.5%Immortal 0.8%mil spec 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.2%Uncommon 94.9%best hit $428 (97.17x)