50% knife

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$267.52

535 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $240.76 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.83%

262 openings, odds method

Variance

16.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

69.83%±49.17262 openings

30 days

69.83%±49.17262 openings

since tracking started

69.83%±49.17262 openings

-0.5%93.3%187.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	30.23%±156.1	—	odds
7d	262	69.83%±49.2	−0.8σ	odds
30d	262	69.83%±49.2	−0.8σ	odds
All	262	69.83%±49.2	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 262 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$10.6K 21,246 coins	44.1%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 100	$2,169 4,338 coins	9.0%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$1,454 2,909 coins	6.0%	1	2.6	0.38×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$1,022 2,043 coins	4.2%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$918 1,836 coins	3.8%	1	2.6	0.38×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$552 1,105 coins	2.3%	5	2.6	1.91×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 100	$501 1,001 coins	2.1%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$430 860 coins	3.6%	2	5.2	0.38×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$416 831 coins	3.5%	3	5.2	0.57×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · gold · Phase 4	1 in 33	$329 657 coins	4.1%	6	7.9	0.76×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 25	$263 526 coins	4.4%	9	10.5	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25	$225 450 coins	3.7%	14	10.5	1.34×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 13	$109 217 coins	3.6%	25	21.0	1.19×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	10.0%	$77.18 154 coins	3.2%	21	26.2	0.80×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	10.0%	$56.78 114 coins	2.4%	22	26.2	0.84×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	50.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	145	131.0	1.11×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$268535 coins$10.6K21,246 coins39.71x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$268535 coins$10.6K21,246 coins39.71x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$268535 coins$2,1694,338 coins8.11x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$268535 coins$2,1694,338 coins8.11x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$268535 coins$1,4542,909 coins5.44x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$268535 coins$1,0222,043 coins3.82x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$268535 coins$9181,836 coins3.43x6d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$268535 coins$5521,105 coins2.06x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$268535 coins$77.18154 coins0.29x1h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$268535 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$268535 coins$225450 coins0.84x1h

★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$268535 coins$77.18154 coins0.29x1h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$268535 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffnigxoo$268535 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$268535 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$268535 coins$225450 coins0.84x1h

★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal$268535 coins$56.78114 coins0.21x1h

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$268535 coins$263526 coins0.98x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$268	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.0%legendary 1.0%Immortal 11.0%Covert 2.0%gold 3.0%other 4.0%#4b69ff 50.0%best hit $10.6K (39.71x)