5000x Or Bust
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.06
0.11 coins
Advertised RTP
82.19%
EV $0.05 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.09%
14.1K openings, odds method
Variance
3298.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10,989
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14,147 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 45,455 | $250 500 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives | 1 in 45,455 | $250 500 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal | 1 in 45,455 | $249 499 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 40,000 | $249 497 coins | 13.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 45,455 | $249 497 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 58,824 | $249 497 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 62,500 | $245 491 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 62,500 | $242 485 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 100.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 11.1% | 14,147 | 14144.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.19%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.06 | 82.19% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 100.0%Knives 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%Extraordinary 0.0%best hit —