500x or Bust
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.51
1.01 coins
Advertised RTP
89.28%
EV $0.45 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.23%
7,502 openings, odds method
Variance
432.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 952
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,502 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 5,000 | $250 500 coins | 11.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives | 1 in 5,000 | $250 500 coins | 11.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal | 1 in 5,000 | $249 499 coins | 11.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $249 497 coins | 11.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 4,000 | $249 497 coins | 13.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 4,000 | $249 497 coins | 13.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 4,000 | $245 491 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 4,000 | $242 485 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 99.8% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 7,486 | 7488.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$0.511.01 coins$250500 coins495.1x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$0.511.01 coins$250500 coins495.1x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$0.511.01 coins$250500 coins495.1x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$0.511.01 coins$250500 coins495.0x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$0.511.01 coins$250500 coins495.0x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal$0.511.01 coins$249499 coins493.8x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal$0.511.01 coins$249499 coins493.8x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal$0.511.01 coins$249499 coins493.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.51 | 89.28% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 0.0%Knives 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%Extraordinary 0.1%#4b69ff 99.8%best hit $250 (495.1x)