7% Candy
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.83
21.66 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $9.74 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.56%
10.2K openings, odds method
Variance
47.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 83
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · SapphireFalseApollo$10.8321.66 coins$2,2514,502 coins207.8x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$10.8321.66 coins$5711,141 coins52.68x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.83 | 89.96% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%Covert 0.0%classified 0.5%epic 0.2%gold 0.3%extraordinary 3.0%mil spec 1.0%Classified 1.8%industrial 93.0%best hit $2,251 (207.8x)