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9% Luck Box

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$39.06
78.12 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $35.15 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.73%
740 openings, odds method
Variance
11.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
96 openings · below min
7 days
81.21%±29.19522 openings
30 days
78.73%±24.52740 openings
since tracking started
78.73%±24.52740 openings
45.0%113.8%182.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h96113.58%±68.1—odds
7d52281.21%±29.2−0.6σodds
30d74078.73%±24.5−0.9σodds
All74078.73%±24.5−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 740 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 227$721 1,442 coins9.0%63.31.84×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 227$700 1,401 coins8.8%23.30.61×
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 227$660 1,320 coins8.3%33.30.92×
★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 227$650 1,300 coins8.1%53.31.54×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 227$627 1,254 coins7.9%13.30.31×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 227$620 1,241 coins7.8%13.30.31×
Charm | Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon1 in 227$606 1,211 coins7.6%13.30.31×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 227$572 1,143 coins7.2%43.31.23×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife1 in 227$564 1,128 coins7.1%23.30.61×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife1 in 227$465 930 coins5.8%23.30.61×
★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 227$452 903 coins5.7%33.30.92×
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 86$224 447 coins7.4%78.60.82×
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 33$112 223 coins9.5%2422.21.08×
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff91.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%679673.41.01×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7211,442 coins18.46x
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertprudent$39.0678.12 coins$7211,442 coins18.46x
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7211,442 coins18.46x
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7211,442 coins18.46x
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7211,442 coins18.46x
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7211,442 coins18.46x
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7001,401 coins17.93x
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$39.0678.12 coins$7001,401 coins17.93x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$39.0678.12 coins$6601,320 coins16.90x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$39.0678.12 coins$6601,320 coins16.90x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$39.0678.12 coins$465930 coins11.91x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffnigxoo$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$39.0678.12 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$39.0689.99%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.5%restricted 0.4%gold 0.4%covert knife 0.9%uncommon 0.4%other 0.9%extraordinary 0.4%#4b69ff 91.0%best hit $721 (18.46x)