Ace
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.20
68.39 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $30.77 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.18%
108 openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$34.2068.39 coins$7511,501 coins21.95x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$34.2068.39 coins$254507 coins7.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.20 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.2%legendary 0.0%other 1.0%Covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%covert knife 1.3%mil spec 2.3%#4b69ff 2.6%classified 3.0%restricted 63.3%industrial 25.0%best hit $751 (21.95x)