Acid
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.01
36.02 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.21 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.45%
3,274 openings, odds method
Variance
243.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3,274 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,274 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 1,000 | $8,862 17,724 coins | 54.7% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 1,000 | $361 721 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| Charm | Titeenium AWPcharm · Legendary | 1 in 200 | $226 451 coins | 7.0% | 30 | 16.4 | 1.83× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $206 413 coins | 12.7% | 38 | 32.7 | 1.16× |
| AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $13.72 27.44 coins | 16.9% | 656 | 654.8 | 1.00× |
| MP7 | Tall Grass (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $2.17 4.33 coins | 2.7% | 669 | 654.8 | 1.02× |
| M249 | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Common | 20.0% | $2.03 4.05 coins | 2.5% | 618 | 654.8 | 0.94× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 38.3% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 1.3% | 1,260 | 1253.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$18.0136.02 coins$8,86217,724 coins492.1x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldiMadyyyy$18.0136.02 coins$8,86217,724 coins492.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.01 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%Legendary 0.5%restricted 39.3%Rare 20.0%industrial 20.0%Common 20.0%best hit $8,862 (492.1x)