Aim Bot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$91.84
184 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $82.65 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.86%
1,080 openings, odds method
Variance
14.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,080 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $2,955 5,910 coins | 35.8% | 13 | 10.8 | 1.20× |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 31.4% | 31 | 21.6 | 1.44× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 33 | $501 1,002 coins | 18.2% | 21 | 32.4 | 0.65× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $226 452 coins | 8.2% | 31 | 32.4 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $16.67 33.34 coins | 3.0% | 171 | 162.0 | 1.06× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $8.01 16.02 coins | 1.5% | 148 | 162.0 | 0.91× |
| P90 | Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 30.0% | $3.50 7 coins | 1.3% | 354 | 324.0 | 1.09× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 31.0% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 0.8% | 311 | 334.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covertEliteRift1189$91.84184 coins$8.0116.02 coins0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $91.84 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 1.0%classified 17.0%Covert 3.0%mil spec 3.0%covert 15.0%#4b69ff 30.0%#777777 31.0%best hit $2,955 (32.17x)