AK 50-50
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$61.11
122 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $55.00 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
61.92%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $157 314 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $115 229 coins | 31.3% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $98.06 196 coins | 26.7% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $86.27 173 coins | 23.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $6.27 12.54 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $5.22 10.44 coins | 1.4% | 10 | 4.2 | 2.38× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $3.12 6.23 coins | 0.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $1.87 3.73 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$61.11122 coins$115229 coins1.88x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $61.11 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%restricted 30.0%mil spec 15.0%industrial 5.0%best hit —