Aloha
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$168.60
337 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $151.74 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.13%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$169337 coins$1,2712,542 coins7.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $169 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%extraordinary 2.0%legendary 2.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%epic 2.0%covert knife 6.0%Covert 2.0%Mythical 2.0%classified 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%blue 70.0%best hit $1,271 (7.54x)