Amber Spot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.43
82.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $37.28 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.95%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 100 | $493 986 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $157 314 coins | 21.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $106 212 coins | 22.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $57.72 115 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $29.36 58.71 coins | 11.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 16.0% | $22.31 44.61 coins | 9.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.34× |
| SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $9.58 19.15 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| Tec-9 | Toxic (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 22.0% | $3.41 6.81 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classifiedrekztimmy$41.4382.85 coins$29.3658.71 coins0.71x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.43 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.0%classified 56.0%Rare 22.0%best hit —