Ambush
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,437.52
4,875 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,193.76 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.56%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 14.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 25.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 20.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire | 1 in 33 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 12.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $3,314 6,628 coins | 7.6% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 77.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 27.7 | 1.12× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2,4384,875 coins$2,6945,388 coins1.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSanityy$2,4384,875 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,438 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 6.0%extraordinary 6.0%#EB4B4B 3.0%covert 8.0%consumer 77.0%best hit $15.1K (6.18x)