Area 51

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$157.39

315 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $141.65 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.69%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

58.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

63.0%100.8%138.5%

Small sample. 32 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	32	100.69%±37.2	—	odds
30d	32	100.69%±37.2	—	odds
All	32	100.69%±37.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$527 1,055 coins	26.1%	2	2.2	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$404 809 coins	20.0%	2	2.2	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$301 602 coins	14.9%	5	2.2	2.23×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$251 501 coins	12.4%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 14	$227 454 coins	11.2%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$167 334 coins	8.3%	3	2.2	1.34×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$144 288 coins	7.1%	5	2.2	2.23×
Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	51.0%	$0.28 0.55 coins	0.1%	13	16.3	0.80×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.