Armory Drop
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.64
41.28 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $18.57 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.67%
56 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 56 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$20.6441.28 coins$60.28121 coins2.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.64 | 89.99% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRare 1.0%Covert 1.1%Legendary 1.3%covert knife 1.3%mil spec 69.8%#8847ff 1.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.5%classified 12.5%rare 4.5%industrial 4.5%best hit —