Ascendant
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.43
24.86 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $11.19 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.87%
345 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
43.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $1,534 3,068 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 14 | $51.69 103 coins | 32.3% | 23 | 24.2 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $15.38 30.75 coins | 34.4% | 95 | 86.3 | 1.10× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $12.80 25.6 coins | 28.6% | 92 | 86.3 | 1.07× |
| MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $2.63 5.26 coins | 2.4% | 31 | 34.5 | 0.90× |
| CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.9% | 29 | 34.5 | 0.84× |
| Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 38 | 34.5 | 1.10× |
| Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 13.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 37 | 44.8 | 0.83× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classifiedvalentinslisaks$12.4324.86 coins$51.69103 coins4.16x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$12.4324.86 coins$51.69103 coins4.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.43 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%Classified 7.0%covert 25.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%mil spec 10.0%consumer 13.0%best hit —