Assassin

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$533.43

1,067 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $480.08 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.48%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

44.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

63.5%98.5%133.5%

Small sample. 4 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	98.48%±34.2	—	odds
30d	4	98.48%±34.2	—	odds
All	4	98.48%±34.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100,000	$7,898 15,795 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 100,000	$7,754 15,508 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100,000	$7,752 15,504 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl	1 in 100,000	$6,327 12,654 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$1,946 3,893 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 50	$908 1,816 coins	3.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$899 1,799 coins	3.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 50	$893 1,787 coins	3.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 33	$751 1,501 coins	4.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	35.0%	$510 1,020 coins	37.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	35.0%	$506 1,012 coins	36.9%	2	1.4	1.43×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14	$339 678 coins	4.9%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$259 517 coins	3.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 15	$56.77 114 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.