Aurora Sky
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.47
36.94 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.62 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.89%
985 openings, odds method
Variance
50.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 62
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 985 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $932 1,864 coins | 28.0% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $293 587 coins | 17.7% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× |
| Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 50 | $102 205 coins | 12.3% | 27 | 19.7 | 1.37× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $57.63 115 coins | 13.9% | 31 | 39.4 | 0.79× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $9.52 19.03 coins | 8.6% | 153 | 147.8 | 1.04× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 77.4% | $0.68 1.35 coins | 3.1% | 758 | 762.3 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary$18.4736.94 coins$1,7883,576 coins96.81x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.47 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%legendary 0.1%classified 4.5%restricted 78.4%Restricted 2.0%Mythical 15.0%best hit $1,788 (96.81x)