AWP 50-50
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$373.76
748 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $336.38 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.38%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 11.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $884 1,767 coins | 13.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $657 1,315 coins | 29.3% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $639 1,278 coins | 28.5% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $557 1,113 coins | 24.8% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.67× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $41.20 82.39 coins | 1.8% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $25.31 50.62 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $22.21 44.41 coins | 1.0% | 9 | 4.8 | 1.88× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $18.99 37.97 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6571,315 coins1.76x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertBigNIg2000$374748 coins$6571,315 coins1.76x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6571,315 coins1.76x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6571,315 coins1.76x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$374748 coins$6391,278 coins1.71x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $374 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.0%Classified 15.0%classified 45.0%industrial 5.0%best hit $657 (1.76x)