Backstab

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$189.39

379 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $170.45 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

45.60%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%75.8%152.0%

Small sample. 8 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	45.60%±105.9	—	odds
30d	8	45.60%±105.9	—	odds
All	8	45.60%±105.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$6,327 12,654 coins	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,861 3,722 coins	10.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20	$506 1,012 coins	14.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	15.0%	$290 580 coins	25.5%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	15.0%	$267 535 coins	23.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	20.0%	$58.23 116 coins	6.8%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	20.0%	$57.14 114 coins	6.7%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	23.9%	$56.77 114 coins	8.0%	3	1.9	1.57×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.