BALLYBANG
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.15
112 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $50.53 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.47%
4,978 openings, odds method
Variance
107.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,978 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 46.1% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.88× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 400 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 30.8% | 5 | 12.4 | 0.40× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $2,340 4,679 coins | 11.6% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.72× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $2,317 4,635 coins | 11.5% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.37× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 99.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 4,936 | 4928.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $56.15 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%#ffd700 0.3%extraordinary 0.3%consumer 99.0%best hit $9,318 (166.0x)