Banana
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.35
38.7 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $17.41 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.97%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $114 227 coins | 19.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $112 224 coins | 19.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $109 217 coins | 18.7% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $101 202 coins | 17.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| Tec-9 | Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 33 | $76.49 153 coins | 13.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New)weapon · 1 | 15.0% | $9.66 19.31 coins | 8.3% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |
| Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 30.0% | $2.07 4.13 coins | 3.6% | 17 | 20.4 | 0.83× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 40.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 27 | 27.2 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonDemonDeeeeek$19.3538.7 coins$2.074.13 coins0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.35 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 15.0%covert 9.0%restricted 3.0%#4b69ff 3.0%uncommon 30.0%consumer 40.0%best hit —