Basalt
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.49
14.98 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $6.74 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.11%
6,922 openings, odds method
Variance
56.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 143
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,936 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 1,000 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 20.0% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles | 1 in 400 | $470 940 coins | 17.5% | 19 | 17.3 | 1.10× |
| ★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 286 | $358 716 coins | 18.6% | 18 | 24.3 | 0.74× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 222 | $250 500 coins | 16.7% | 31 | 31.2 | 0.99× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 118 | $100 200 coins | 12.6% | 52 | 59.0 | 0.88× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 87 | $50.13 100 coins | 8.6% | 89 | 79.8 | 1.12× |
| USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $4.00 8 coins | 5.9% | 671 | 693.6 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 86.9% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,050 | 6023.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.4914.98 coins$1,3502,701 coins180.3x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.4914.98 coins$1,3502,701 coins180.3x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.4914.98 coins$1,3502,701 coins180.3x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.4914.98 coins$1,3502,701 coins180.3x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.4914.98 coins$1,3502,701 coins180.3x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.4914.98 coins$1,3502,701 coins180.3x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles$7.4914.98 coins$470940 coins62.78x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles$7.4914.98 coins$470940 coins62.78x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles$7.4914.98 coins$470940 coins62.78x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles$7.4914.98 coins$470940 coins62.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.49 | 89.94% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%Rifles 0.3%industrial 0.4%Industrial Grade 1.1%Rare 10.0%#4b69ff 86.9%best hit $1,350 (180.3x)