BCX
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.88
27.76 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $12.49 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.04%
35.4K openings, odds method
Variance
97.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 167
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 10,000 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 3,333 | $3,644 7,288 coins | 8.8% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,667 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 7.7% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $1,548 3,095 coins | 24.8% | 77 | 70.9 | 1.09× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 333 | $595 1,191 coins | 14.3% | 96 | 106.4 | 0.90× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $214 427 coins | 6.8% | 131 | 141.8 | 0.92× |
| AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $210 420 coins | 16.8% | 346 | 354.6 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $177 354 coins | 14.2% | 377 | 354.6 | 1.06× |
| G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 97.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.2% | 34,400 | 34398.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$8,07916,159 coins582.1x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyspejsat$13.8827.76 coins$8,07916,159 coins582.1x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$8,07916,159 coins582.1x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyfredric89$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$13.8827.76 coins$3,6447,288 coins262.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.88 | 89.97% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 1.4%extraordinary 0.6%restricted 1.0%blue 97.0%best hit $8,079 (582.1x)