Beggars Loot

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.12

2.24 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $1.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.59%

6,831 openings, odds method

Variance

86.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 87

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67.71%±53.891,148 openings

7 days

82.94%±25.185,258 openings

30 days

84.59%±22.096,831 openings

since tracking started

84.59%±22.096,831 openings

13.0%67.8%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,148	67.71%±53.9	−0.8σ	odds
7d	5,258	82.94%±25.2	−0.5σ	odds
30d	6,831	84.59%±22.1	−0.5σ	odds
All	6,831	84.59%±22.1	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,831 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 20,000	$1,271 2,542 coins	6.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$264 527 coins	2.6%	1	0.7	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$252 503 coins	2.5%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,000	$59.52 119 coins	3.0%	2	3.4	0.59×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$52.99 106 coins	4.2%	4	5.5	0.73×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$51.70 103 coins	4.1%	8	5.5	1.46×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,250	$51.12 102 coins	4.1%	6	5.5	1.10×
USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$40.22 80.43 coins	4.0%	6	6.8	0.88×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 800	$34.17 68.34 coins	4.2%	12	8.5	1.41×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 800	$31.27 62.54 coins	3.9%	7	8.5	0.82×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 800	$30.12 60.24 coins	3.7%	13	8.5	1.52×
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$28.33 56.65 coins	3.7%	8	8.9	0.90×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 769	$25.16 50.31 coins	3.2%	8	8.9	0.90×
Negev \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,000	$5.17 10.33 coins	0.5%	6	6.8	0.88×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$5.13 10.26 coins	0.5%	6	6.8	0.88×
MP9 \| Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	98.8%	$0.51 1.01 coins	49.5%	6,744	6745.6	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$1.122.24 coins$264527 coins235.4x5d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$1.122.24 coins$59.52119 coins53.14x3d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$1.122.24 coins$59.52119 coins53.14x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.122.24 coins$0.511.01 coins0.45x31m

MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.122.24 coins$0.511.01 coins0.45x40m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.12	89.97%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%gold 0.0%Ancient 0.1%restricted 0.2%classified 0.3%extraordinary 0.1%industrial 0.2%#8847ff 0.1%Rare 0.1%mil spec 98.8%best hit $264 (235.4x)