Big Bag

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$492.31

985 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $443.08 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.40%

642 openings, odds method

Variance

32.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 143

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

62 openings · below min

7 days

626 openings · below min

30 days

642 openings · below min

since tracking started

642 openings · below min

-0.5%86.0%172.5%

Small sample. 642 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	62	30.73%±141.3	—	odds
7d	626	70.91%±44.5	—	odds
30d	642	69.40%±43.9	—	odds
All	642	69.40%±43.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 642 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$41.2K 82,490 coins	9.3%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000	$36.5K 72,902 coins	8.2%	2	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$36.3K 72,651 coins	8.2%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$31.6K 63,128 coins	7.1%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$26.7K 53,347 coins	6.0%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$25.5K 51,019 coins	5.8%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$24.8K 49,625 coins	5.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$18.7K 37,392 coins	4.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$15.1K 30,112 coins	3.4%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	10.0%	$770 1,541 coins	17.4%	76	64.2	1.18×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	10.0%	$701 1,401 coins	15.8%	63	64.2	0.98×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	79.1%	$50.13 100 coins	8.9%	500	507.8	0.98×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.