Biggy Tiger
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,734.80
3,470 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,561.32 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.07%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 33 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 20.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 33 | $7,898 15,795 coins | 15.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Sticker | LUCAS1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker | 1 in 33 | $7,441 14,883 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 33 | $6,892 13,784 coins | 13.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $5,513 11,026 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 9.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 81.0% | $0.49 0.99 coins | 0.0% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,7353,470 coins$6,89213,784 coins3.97x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,7353,470 coins$6,89213,784 coins3.97x
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSanityy$1,7353,470 coins$0.490.99 coins0.00x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,7353,470 coins$6,89213,784 coins3.97x
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedJohnDoe77$1,7353,470 coins$0.490.99 coins0.00x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,7353,470 coins$6,89213,784 coins3.97x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,735 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 13.0%other 3.0%extraordinary 3.0%classified 81.0%best hit $6,892 (3.97x)