Black Ops
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.61
39.21 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $17.64 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.26%
718 openings, odds method
Variance
34.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 718 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$19.6139.21 coins$1,2582,517 coins64.18x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$19.6139.21 coins$6301,260 coins32.12x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$19.6139.21 coins$6301,260 coins32.12x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.61 | 89.99% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.0%extraordinary 1.0%Covert 0.5%covert 0.5%covert knife 1.0%sunny 3.0%milspec 93.9%best hit $1,258 (64.18x)