Black Pearl 1200x

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.83

9.65 coins

Advertised RTP

89.91%

EV $4.34 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.49%

4,336 openings, odds method

Variance

178.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 38

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

66.43%±76.261,180 openings

7 days

75.01%±46.313,200 openings

30 days

77.49%±39.784,336 openings

since tracking started

77.49%±39.784,336 openings

-0.5%71.5%143.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,180	66.43%±76.3	−0.6σ	odds
7d	3,200	75.01%±46.3	−0.6σ	odds
30d	4,336	77.49%±39.8	−0.6σ	odds
All	4,336	77.49%±39.8	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,336 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$5,754 11,508 coins	13.3%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,252 2,504 coins	14.4%	2	2.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$250 500 coins	2.9%	2	2.2	0.92×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$50.22 100 coins	5.8%	24	21.7	1.11×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$37.64 75.28 coins	4.3%	24	21.7	1.11×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$34.57 69.13 coins	4.0%	22	21.7	1.01×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$34.03 68.06 coins	3.9%	23	21.7	1.06×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$33.19 66.38 coins	3.8%	17	21.7	0.78×
SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 200	$26.46 52.92 coins	3.0%	21	21.7	0.97×
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$25.41 50.82 coins	2.9%	21	21.7	0.97×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	16.0%	$5.12 10.24 coins	18.9%	718	693.8	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	16.0%	$5.04 10.08 coins	18.6%	690	693.8	0.99×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	16.0%	$0.56 1.11 coins	2.0%	652	693.8	0.94×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	16.0%	$0.55 1.09 coins	2.0%	691	693.8	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer	16.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	710	693.8	1.02×
AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common	16.4%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	719	710.7	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.839.65 coins$1,2522,504 coins259.5x4d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.839.65 coins$1,2522,504 coins259.5x8d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$4.839.65 coins$250500 coins51.85x1d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$4.839.65 coins$250500 coins51.85x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$4.839.65 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8m

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumerLer1$4.839.65 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x8m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.839.65 coins$0.551.09 coins0.11x8m

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$4.839.65 coins$5.1210.24 coins1.06x8m

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$4.839.65 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x8m

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert$4.839.65 coins$37.6475.28 coins7.80x8m

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$4.839.65 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x8m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$4.839.65 coins$0.561.11 coins0.12x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.83	89.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%extraordinary 0.5%Ancient 0.5%classified 0.5%industrial 0.5%restricted 32.5%Legendary 16.0%Rare 16.0%consumer 16.0%Common 16.4%best hit $1,252 (259.5x)