Black Site
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.35
30.7 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $13.81 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.34%
1,261 openings, odds method
Variance
37.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,261 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 200 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 45.6% | 1 | 6.3 | 0.16× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $250 500 coins | 27.2% | 23 | 18.9 | 1.22× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $50.13 100 coins | 14.5% | 57 | 50.4 | 1.13× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 14 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 12.7% | 95 | 88.3 | 1.08× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 87.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,085 | 1097.1 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.3530.7 coins$1,2582,517 coins81.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.35 | 89.98% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%industrial 1.5%Industrial Grade 4.0%Rare 7.0%#4b69ff 87.0%best hit $1,258 (81.98x)