Bless Up

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$36.90

73.79 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $33.20 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.55%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

52.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

69.0%99.5%130.0%

Small sample. 20 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	20	99.55%±29.8	—	odds
30d	20	99.55%±29.8	—	odds
All	20	99.55%±29.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100,000	$1,405 2,810 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 10,000	$279 558 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$266 531 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	12.0%	$57.97 116 coins	20.9%	5	2.4	2.08×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$57.63 115 coins	20.8%	1	2.4	0.42×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet	12.0%	$57.61 115 coins	20.8%	3	2.4	1.25×
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	12.0%	$51.73 103 coins	18.7%	3	2.4	1.25×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$29.36 58.71 coins	6.2%	1	1.4	0.71×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 14	$29.21 58.42 coins	6.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$27.98 55.96 coins	5.9%	1	1.4	0.71×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.58 1.17 coins	0.1%	2	1.0	—
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.55 1.09 coins	0.1%	0	1.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.55 1.09 coins	0.1%	1	1.0	—
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.0%	2	1.0	—
XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	1	1.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	0	1.2	0.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$36.9073.79 coins$51.73103 coins1.40x4d

FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet$36.9073.79 coins$57.61115 coins1.56x4d

MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$36.9073.79 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x4d

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$36.9073.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4d

Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$36.9073.79 coins$57.97116 coins1.57x4d

FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violetEliteLynx4233$36.9073.79 coins$57.61115 coins1.56x4d

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$36.9073.79 coins$0.551.09 coins0.01x5d

FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet$36.9073.79 coins$57.61115 coins1.56x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$36.90	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%other 0.0%classified 31.0%violet 12.0%extraordinary 12.0%#d32ee6 7.0%industrial 7.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%milspec 5.0%consumer 6.0%best hit —