Blizzard
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.86
63.72 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.67 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
111.39%
132 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$31.8663.72 coins$5711,141 coins17.91x
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · goldaxel02legmail$31.8663.72 coins$5681,136 coins17.83x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.86 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.7%covert 8.6%Knives 0.1%Immortal 0.1%covert knife 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%mil spec 7.0%restricted 53.5%consumer 10.0%#777777 12.0%best hit $571 (17.91x)