Bloodline

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,929.52

3,859 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,736.56 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

122.60%

148 openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

122.60%±49.73148 openings

30 days

122.60%±49.73148 openings

since tracking started

122.60%±49.73148 openings

-0.5%134.3%269.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	54.31%±213.9	—	odds
7d	148	122.60%±49.7	+1.3σ	odds
30d	148	122.60%±49.7	+1.3σ	odds
All	148	122.60%±49.7	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 148 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 200	$72.4K 144,822 coins	20.8%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 200	$10.9K 21,888 coins	3.2%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$9,925 19,850 coins	17.1%	8	4.4	1.80×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$9,847 19,695 coins	17.0%	3	4.4	0.68×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33	$8,347 16,693 coins	14.4%	5	4.4	1.13×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33	$8,079 16,159 coins	14.0%	1	4.4	0.23×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33	$7,651 15,302 coins	13.2%	6	4.4	1.35×
Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	21.0%	$10.01 20.02 coins	0.1%	28	31.1	0.90×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	21.0%	$5.47 10.93 coins	0.1%	37	31.1	1.19×
G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	21.0%	$5.02 10.04 coins	0.1%	29	31.1	0.93×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	21.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	29	31.1	0.93×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,9303,859 coins$72.4K144,822 coins37.53x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,9303,859 coins$9,92519,850 coins5.14x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertcherrylea$1,9303,859 coins$9,92519,850 coins5.14x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,9303,859 coins$9,92519,850 coins5.14x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,9303,859 coins$9,92519,850 coins5.14x5d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertludas00$1,9303,859 coins$9,92519,850 coins5.14x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1,9303,859 coins$5.4710.93 coins0.00x21h

Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$1,9303,859 coins$10.0120.02 coins0.01x21h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$1,9303,859 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21h

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1,9303,859 coins$5.4710.93 coins0.00x21h

Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$1,9303,859 coins$10.0120.02 coins0.01x21h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$1,9303,859 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,9303,859 coins$8,34716,693 coins4.33x21h

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertpiyeyooo$1,9303,859 coins$5.4710.93 coins0.00x21h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$1,9303,859 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$1,9303,859 coins$10.0120.02 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1,930	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.5%contraband 0.5%covert 36.0%industrial 21.0%mil spec 21.0%#4b69ff 21.0%best hit $72.4K (37.53x)