Bloom

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.66

61.31 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $27.59 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

60.31%

358 openings, odds method

Variance

18.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83 openings · below min

7 days

48.05%±58.99200 openings

30 days

60.31%±44.09358 openings

since tracking started

60.31%±44.09358 openings

-0.5%70.8%142.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	83	49.94%±91.6	—	odds
7d	200	48.05%±59.0	−1.4σ	odds
30d	358	60.31%±44.1	−1.3σ	odds
All	358	60.31%±44.1	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 358 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 400	$1,321 2,641 coins	12.0%	1	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 400	$1,317 2,634 coins	11.9%	0	0.9	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 400	$1,316 2,632 coins	11.9%	0	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 400	$1,271 2,542 coins	11.5%	0	0.9	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$68.02 136 coins	4.9%	8	7.2	1.12×
Charm \| Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ff	1 in 33	$62.00 124 coins	6.7%	9	10.7	0.84×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 33	$59.52 119 coins	6.5%	13	10.7	1.21×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$58.64 117 coins	6.4%	8	10.7	0.74×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$51.63 103 coins	5.6%	14	10.7	1.30×
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$43.89 87.78 coins	6.4%	13	14.3	0.91×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$42.01 84.01 coins	6.1%	16	14.3	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$30.12 60.24 coins	5.5%	21	17.9	1.17×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$25.31 50.62 coins	4.6%	14	17.9	0.78×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	67.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	241	239.9	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary$30.6661.31 coins$1,3212,641 coins43.08x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$30.6661.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5h

Charm | Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ff$30.6661.31 coins$62.00124 coins2.02x5h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$30.6661.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5h

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$30.6661.31 coins$30.1260.24 coins0.98x5h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$30.6661.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5h

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$30.6661.31 coins$30.1260.24 coins0.98x5h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$30.6661.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$30.66	89.99%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.3%covert 0.5%high 0.3%Classified 5.0%#8847ff 8.0%Ancient 3.0%Mythical 3.0%extraordinary 8.0%classified 5.0%#4b69ff 67.0%best hit $1,321 (43.08x)