Bloop
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.12
26.23 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $11.80 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.42%
3,619 openings, odds method
Variance
36.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 83
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,627 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 200 | $1,031 2,061 coins | 43.7% | 17 | 18.1 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 143 | $252 504 coins | 14.9% | 22 | 25.4 | 0.87× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 111 | $202 404 coins | 15.4% | 31 | 32.6 | 0.95× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $153 305 coins | 12.9% | 35 | 36.3 | 0.96× |
| Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $26.94 53.88 coins | 4.6% | 87 | 72.5 | 1.20× |
| Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $4.07 8.14 coins | 2.1% | 212 | 217.6 | 0.97× |
| MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $2.70 5.39 coins | 1.6% | 223 | 253.9 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 27.0% | $1.07 2.13 coins | 2.4% | 985 | 979.3 | 1.01× |
| MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 27.0% | $0.62 1.24 coins | 1.4% | 980 | 979.3 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 27.9% | $0.41 0.81 coins | 1.0% | 1,035 | 1011.9 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · goldcherrylea$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold$13.1226.23 coins$1,0312,061 coins78.59x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.12 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.5%classified 0.7%covert 1.9%mil spec 2.0%restricted 13.0%Mythical 27.0%Rare 54.9%best hit $1,031 (78.59x)