BOO
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$142.94
286 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $128.64 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.92%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 50 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $401 802 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $252 504 coins | 15.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 10.0% | $175 350 coins | 13.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.14× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 15.0% | $125 250 coins | 14.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $100 201 coins | 7.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 15.0% | $75.32 151 coins | 8.8% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.38× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $50.13 100 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $31.27 62.54 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 10.0% | $9.27 18.53 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$143286 coins$50.13100 coins0.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $143 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%covert knife 15.0%Covert 10.0%gold 15.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%red 10.0%best hit —