BOOM 400K
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39,868.17
79,736 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $35,881.35 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.22%
388 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 388 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $217K 434,217 coins | 60.5% | 41 | 38.8 | 1.06× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $112K 223,312 coins | 31.1% | 37 | 38.8 | 0.95× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 4.6% | 23 | 15.5 | 1.48× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 3.5% | 16 | 19.4 | 0.82× |
| AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified | 35.0% | $259 519 coins | 0.3% | 123 | 135.8 | 0.91× |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 36.0% | $65.87 132 coins | 0.1% | 148 | 139.7 | 1.06× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$24.8K49,625 coins0.62x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$112K223,312 coins2.80x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$112K223,312 coins2.80x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$39.9K79,736 coins$217K434,217 coins5.45x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.9K | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 29.0%classified 71.0%best hit $217K (5.45x)