BOOM HEADSHOT

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$97.61

195 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $87.85 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.30%

54 openings, odds method

Variance

6.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

54 openings · below min

since tracking started

54 openings · below min

-0.5%154.0%308.5%

Small sample. 54 openings and 10.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	64.06%±243.7	—	odds
7d	46	99.06%±71.9	—	odds
30d	54	94.30%±66.3	—	odds
All	54	94.30%±66.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$4,916 9,833 coins	5.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$1,788 3,577 coins	14.3%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,015 2,029 coins	11.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 80	$557 1,113 coins	7.9%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 30	$236 472 coins	8.9%	0	1.8	0.00×
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	13.0%	$132 264 coins	19.6%	13	7.0	1.85×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	12.0%	$93.28 187 coins	12.7%	7	6.5	1.08×
Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	10.0%	$58.94 118 coins	6.7%	6	5.4	1.11×
AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon	10.0%	$49.51 99.01 coins	5.6%	10	5.4	1.85×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$41.20 82.39 coins	2.8%	2	3.2	0.62×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$23.04 46.07 coins	1.6%	0	3.2	0.00×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$18.99 37.97 coins	1.3%	3	3.2	0.93×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$9.67 19.34 coins	0.7%	1	3.2	0.31×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$6.51 13.02 coins	0.6%	4	4.3	0.93×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	16.6%	$0.83 1.66 coins	0.2%	6	9.0	0.67×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertAndushka$97.61195 coins$1,0152,029 coins10.39x3d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$97.61195 coins$5571,113 coins5.70x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon$97.61195 coins$49.5199.01 coins0.51x21h

Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$97.61195 coins$132264 coins1.35x21h

AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial$97.61195 coins$18.9937.97 coins0.19x21h

AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weaponSanityy$97.61195 coins$49.5199.01 coins0.51x21h

Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$97.61195 coins$132264 coins1.35x3d

AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$97.61195 coins$6.5113.02 coins0.07x3d

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$97.61195 coins$0.831.66 coins0.01x3d

AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon$97.61195 coins$49.5199.01 coins0.51x3d

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$97.61195 coins$93.28187 coins0.96x3d

AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial$97.61195 coins$18.9937.97 coins0.19x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$97.61	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.1%Classified 1.3%restricted 13.0%industrial 16.0%other 10.0%classified 42.6%best hit $1,015 (10.39x)