Botai

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$119.96

240 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $107.96 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.34%

1,074 openings, odds method

Variance

14.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

38.71%±45.58262 openings

30 days

76.34%±22.511,074 openings

since tracking started

76.34%±22.511,074 openings

-0.5%87.3%175.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	47.83%±126.5	—	odds
7d	262	38.71%±45.6	−2.2σ	odds
30d	1,074	76.34%±22.5	−1.2σ	odds
All	1,074	76.34%±22.5	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,074 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$52.4K 104,780 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 33,333	$31.6K 63,128 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 16,667	$10.9K 21,888 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$8,079 16,159 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 4,000	$6,648 13,296 coins	1.5%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 4,000	$6,562 13,124 coins	1.5%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$3,722 7,444 coins	2.4%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,250	$3,288 6,576 coins	2.4%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$3,086 6,171 coins	2.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 263	$2,694 5,388 coins	9.5%	3	4.1	0.74×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 77	$1,946 3,893 coins	23.4%	15	14.0	1.07×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 20	$500 1,000 coins	23.2%	49	53.7	0.91×
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$250 500 coins	13.9%	66	64.4	1.02×
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 13	$125 250 coins	9.3%	92	85.9	1.07×
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	12.0%	$62.54 125 coins	7.0%	131	128.9	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	67.0%	$0.50 1 coins	0.3%	718	719.6	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$120240 coins$2,6945,388 coins22.46x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$120240 coins$1,9463,893 coins16.23x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$120240 coins$0.501 coins0.00x2h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueEliteRift1189$120240 coins$0.501 coins0.00x2h

★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert$120240 coins$62.54125 coins0.52x2h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$120240 coins$0.501 coins0.00x2h

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrialEliteRift1189$120240 coins$250500 coins2.08x2h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$120240 coins$0.501 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$120	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%contraband 0.0%covert 14.0%other 5.0%industrial 6.0%gold 8.0%blue 67.0%best hit $2,694 (22.46x)