Bounty
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.46
30.92 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $13.91 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.41%
186 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 186 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedchakhna$15.4630.92 coins$34.0368.06 coins2.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.46 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%other 4.5%covert 9.0%restricted 9.0%classified 9.0%#8847ff 4.5%mil spec 4.5%consumer 30.0%Consumer Grade 29.4%best hit —