Breach Protocol
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.72
41.44 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $18.65 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.52%
73 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 73 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$20.7241.44 coins$140280 coins6.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.72 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%Covert 0.2%Restricted 0.4%rare 0.5%classified 1.0%extraordinary 2.0%covert knife 1.0%Immortal 2.5%industrial 2.5%Mythical 6.0%#87c7ff 8.0%#8847ff 30.0%consumer 42.4%best hit —