Bridges
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.31
8.62 coins
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $3.87 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.07%
33.7K openings, odds method
Variance
100.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 3,333 | $1,750 3,500 coins | 13.6% | 17 | 10.1 | 1.68× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,429 | $707 1,413 coins | 12.8% | 20 | 23.6 | 0.85× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 667 | $434 868 coins | 16.8% | 58 | 50.5 | 1.15× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 667 | $245 491 coins | 9.5% | 54 | 50.5 | 1.07× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $217 434 coins | 11.2% | 76 | 67.4 | 1.13× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 222 | $123 245 coins | 14.2% | 147 | 151.6 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $96.18 192 coins | 12.4% | 169 | 168.5 | 1.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 200 | $73.00 146 coins | 9.4% | 146 | 168.5 | 0.87× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 98.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 33,011 | 33007.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.318.62 coins$1,7503,500 coins406.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.31 | 89.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.6%covert 0.3%knifes 0.1%mil spec 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.5%#4b69ff 98.0%best hit $1,750 (406.1x)