Buddy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$264.93

530 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $238.44 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.51%

26 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

26 openings · below min

since tracking started

26 openings · below min

-0.5%127.8%256.0%

Small sample. 26 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	110.01%±145.2	—	odds
7d	18	113.67%±48.4	—	odds
30d	26	101.51%±40.3	—	odds
All	26	101.51%±40.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$1,002 2,005 coins	21.0%	1	1.3	0.77×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$657 1,315 coins	13.8%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 20	$579 1,159 coins	12.2%	2	1.3	1.54×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$525 1,051 coins	11.0%	3	1.3	2.31×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20	$450 900 coins	9.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 2	1 in 20	$416 831 coins	8.7%	3	1.3	2.31×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20	$276 552 coins	5.8%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$245 491 coins	5.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4	1 in 20	$235 470 coins	4.9%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$201 401 coins	4.2%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$150 300 coins	3.1%	1	1.3	0.77×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	45.0%	$3.52 7.03 coins	0.7%	11	11.7	0.94×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.